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December 30, 2018 04:29:42 +0000 (UTC)

nijiusagi

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Aw, heck! I'll jump on this Bandoriwagon, too! Don't let my results sway your heart from your own best girls, though~

I love Tomoe and Ako so much. Why are they both in bottom ten... Can I count for a thousand people, please? T~T

January 22, 2019 00:45:28 +0000 (UTC)

nijiusagi

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I got my first ever event card today! I don't normally have the time to sit down and grind event points, so I'm super excited! Live Goals made it possible for me to finish my 3+ Roselia team! Hooray~ Now to not play for a week because my wrists are sore from holding my phone for so long! ; n;

February 05, 2019 21:39:41 +0000 (UTC)

pern

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[ day seven of okusawamiikun's 30 day challenge || best pasupare song ]

okay listen ik i said i would only have a tie for popipa but after spamming gyuudays for the past few weeks i have to make it a tie between that and mou ichido luminous. also my fav cover is q&a recital! that song brings back so many memories and the cover was done so well aaaa (sorry discotheque you've been replaced)

( also sorry i died for a few days i wasn't feeling well, p sure it was exhaustion and stress oops, but dw i'm all good now so i can post with full force )

July 21, 2018 00:47:46 +0000 (UTC)

ktan17

I was thinking about probability tingz and I decided to calculate some gacha probabilities for fun for anyone else who was curious like me. :O this list might make you feel better/worse depending on your luck so far :"D

These calculations are made under the assumption that the last pull is always a 3☆ (97%) or 4☆ (3%) girl, because I'm pretty sure that's how it works?

For 10-play scouts, the probability of:

3☆ pulls:

  • A single 3☆ pull (like... nine 2☆ and one 3☆): 32.30%
  • A double 3☆ pull: 27.92%
  • A triple 3☆ pull: 10.73%

4☆ pulls: (note that the last pull must be a 4☆ in these cases)

  • A single 4☆ pull: 1.00%
  • A double 4☆ pull: 0.30%
  • A triple 4☆ pull: 0.04%

Mix 3☆ and 4☆ pulls:

  • A single 3☆ and single 4☆ pull: 10.72%
  • A double 3☆ and single 4☆ pull: 7.90%
  • A triple 3☆ and single 4☆ pull: 2.62%

Now, let's say we're in an event with a special featured 4☆ girl with the regular rate of 0.5% (1 in 200). For 10-play scouts, the probability of:

  • Getting the event girl in a scout: 4.89%
  • Getting the event girl in 10 scouts (100 girls): 39.42%
  • Getting the event girl in 20 scouts (200 girls): 63.30%
  • Getting the event girl in 40 scouts (400 girls): 86.53%

Now for some funny ones. For a single 10-play scout, the probability of:

  • Getting all 3☆ girls: 1 in 4,451,012,160
  • Getting all 4☆ girls: 1 in 1,693,508,780,843,028

Interesting takeaways:

  • You have less than a 1 in 3 chance of getting the worst pull possible (only one 3☆)
  • The probability of getting a triple 3☆ pull is almost equal to the probability of getting a pull with a single 3☆ and a single 4☆
  • It is 10 times as likely to get a pull with a single 3☆ and a single 4☆ than it is to get a pull with a single 4☆ (this is because in the latter case, the last girl must be the 4☆)
  • Although the probability of a single girl being the event girl is 1 in 200, the probability of 200 girls containing at least one event girl is only 127 in 200.
  • You have a better chance of getting into Stanford than you have getting the event girl in a single pull
  • The probability of getting a triple 4☆ pull is almost as likely as getting struck by lightning
  • You are 169,350,878 times more likely to become the president of the United States than you are to get an all 4☆ pull.

w0w I have way too much time on my hands

EDIT: Actually, on the more optimistic side, the probability of getting at least one 4☆ in a 10-play scout is 26.26%... that’s more likely than flipping a coin twice and getting two heads :O

February 06, 2019 01:22:17 +0000 (UTC)

Chel

i really really really really really really really want RAS in the game

February 05, 2019 05:56:19 +0000 (UTC)

Itoshii
Happy lunar new year y’all! Gong xi fa cai China dress ruby Hina Don’t touch hina’s panda...

Happy lunar new year y’all! Gong xi fa cai

China dress ruby -> Hina

Don’t touch hina’s panda buns or she angery