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July 21, 2018 00:47:46 +0000 (UTC)

ktan17

I was thinking about probability tingz and I decided to calculate some gacha probabilities for fun for anyone else who was curious like me. :O this list might make you feel better/worse depending on your luck so far :"D

These calculations are made under the assumption that the last pull is always a 3☆ (97%) or 4☆ (3%) girl, because I'm pretty sure that's how it works?

For 10-play scouts, the probability of:

3☆ pulls:

  • A single 3☆ pull (like... nine 2☆ and one 3☆): 32.30%
  • A double 3☆ pull: 27.92%
  • A triple 3☆ pull: 10.73%

4☆ pulls: (note that the last pull must be a 4☆ in these cases)

  • A single 4☆ pull: 1.00%
  • A double 4☆ pull: 0.30%
  • A triple 4☆ pull: 0.04%

Mix 3☆ and 4☆ pulls:

  • A single 3☆ and single 4☆ pull: 10.72%
  • A double 3☆ and single 4☆ pull: 7.90%
  • A triple 3☆ and single 4☆ pull: 2.62%

Now, let's say we're in an event with a special featured 4☆ girl with the regular rate of 0.5% (1 in 200). For 10-play scouts, the probability of:

  • Getting the event girl in a scout: 4.89%
  • Getting the event girl in 10 scouts (100 girls): 39.42%
  • Getting the event girl in 20 scouts (200 girls): 63.30%
  • Getting the event girl in 40 scouts (400 girls): 86.53%

Now for some funny ones. For a single 10-play scout, the probability of:

  • Getting all 3☆ girls: 1 in 4,451,012,160
  • Getting all 4☆ girls: 1 in 1,693,508,780,843,028

Interesting takeaways:

  • You have less than a 1 in 3 chance of getting the worst pull possible (only one 3☆)
  • The probability of getting a triple 3☆ pull is almost equal to the probability of getting a pull with a single 3☆ and a single 4☆
  • It is 10 times as likely to get a pull with a single 3☆ and a single 4☆ than it is to get a pull with a single 4☆ (this is because in the latter case, the last girl must be the 4☆)
  • Although the probability of a single girl being the event girl is 1 in 200, the probability of 200 girls containing at least one event girl is only 127 in 200.
  • You have a better chance of getting into Stanford than you have getting the event girl in a single pull
  • The probability of getting a triple 4☆ pull is almost as likely as getting struck by lightning
  • You are 169,350,878 times more likely to become the president of the United States than you are to get an all 4☆ pull.

w0w I have way too much time on my hands

EDIT: Actually, on the more optimistic side, the probability of getting at least one 4☆ in a 10-play scout is 26.26%... that’s more likely than flipping a coin twice and getting two heads :O

July 23, 2018 03:46:21 +0000 (UTC)

Allicat

I reached 19k stars today guys!! Woooo!! 20k is the next goal!

July 21, 2018 05:29:45 +0000 (UTC)

SayMrrp

that moment when you kinda die but then you get healed... and you have a dead chibi but have over 1000 energy

Me: I... feel kinda embarrassed... Fellow players, I really haven't died... The score isn't affected... uwaaaa

July 21, 2018 16:48:11 +0000 (UTC)

Twilisaurus

ran and himari BOTH came home in the same pull along with another 4 star of ako... i now have all the persona cards,,..

July 14, 2018 23:39:55 +0000 (UTC)

Roropii

Misaki is such a talented girl. She can compose music, she makes felt art, and she plays tennis. Plus, she can perform in the Michelle suit during the summer and not pass out. Misaki deserves a cookie.

July 21, 2018 11:15:25 +0000 (UTC)

KiyariTakarin
If Ran is supposed to represent the Phantom Theif leader : Joker and the rest of Afterglow members...

If Ran is supposed to represent the Phantom Theif leader : Joker and the rest of Afterglow members represent the girls members in phantom Theif

And ran Is actuelly presenting a guy

Does that make the rest of Afterglow members of Ran Harem ?

July 19, 2018 12:38:28 +0000 (UTC)

Hirabiki
Time Lapse FULL COMBO!! After like 30 tries I got it! I really wonder though, why are much...

Time Lapse FULL COMBO!!

After like 30+ tries I got it!

I really wonder though, why are much more players dread playing Time Lapse on expert? Is it the finicky Left/Right green note swipe or the pink note spam after chorus?

Is it as simple as “Not everyone has an iPad” and that I’m having an unfair advantage? (No it IS fair)

EDIT: Sorry for giving thumb players assumption... I tried this same song on a phone with thumbs and it actually isn’t any harder at all!

Here’s a video proving myself wrong

July 18, 2018 10:24:30 +0000 (UTC)

DiscoWyvern

So since out of all the Roselia members we still haven't seen Ako's room or Rinko's bed, clearly that means Ako sleeps on the couch and Rinko sold her bed to help pay for her baby grand.

July 17, 2018 08:31:07 +0000 (UTC)

Tsubame

Please tell me I'm not the only former Shugo Chara! fangirl who couldn't take Saaya seriously at first because my brain just

Imgur

July 20, 2018 06:48:50 +0000 (UTC)

Yuzuu

title of image

I have officially saved up to 40 000 stars!!

Until the next Dreamfes (depending on whenever it's one of my fave girls or not) i will continue saving up♥

July 08, 2018 02:54:53 +0000 (UTC)

Smol

I'm working on an 'Introduction to the Bandori Seiyuu!' and there's like half a page on Aimi she's heckin good