Hey everyone! With a DreamFes out I thought I'd do a quick probability post!!! For reference, regular probability stuff here: https://bandori.party/activity/3541/I-was-thinking-about-probability-tingz-and-I-decided-to-calculate-some-gacha-probabilities-for-fun/

In a single 10-girl scout, the probability of:

• A single 3☆ pull (aka worst pull): 22.95% (down from 32.30%)
• A double 3☆ pull: 20.54% (down from 27.92%)
• A triple 3☆ pull: 8.17% (down from 10.73%)

3☆ and 4☆ (to allow for the last girl to be a 3☆)

• Getting a single 3☆ and a single 4☆: 15.81% (up from 10.72%)
• Getting a single 3☆ and a double 4☆: 4.80% (up from 1.57%)
• Getting a single 3☆ and a triple 4☆: 0.85% (up from 0.13%)
• Getting a single 3☆ and a quadruple 4☆: 0.096% (up from 0.007%)

The best news:

• Getting at least one 4☆: 46.14% (up from 26.26%)

Great takeaways:

• You're 13.7x more likely to get a quadruple 4☆ pull in DreamFes than in regular Gacha
• You have about a 1 in 20 chance of getting a single 3☆/double 4☆ pull
• You're 1.7x more likely to get a triple 4☆ pull in DreamFes than getting an event girl in a solo (0.85% vs 0.5%)
• In ten 10-girl scouts, on average you will pull six 4☆
• The probability of getting at least one 4☆ in a pull is almost the same as flipping a coin and getting heads; meaning you should expect at least one 4☆ every other scout!

Good luck everyone! May RNGsus rain four stars on us all, and happy scouting!