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July 21, 2018 00:47:46 +0000
(UTC)
ktan17
I was thinking about probability tingz and I decided to calculate some gacha probabilities for fun for anyone else who was curious like me. :O this list might make you feel better/worse depending on your luck so far :"D
These calculations are made under the assumption that the last pull is always a 3☆ (97%) or 4☆ (3%) girl, because I'm pretty sure that's how it works?
For 10-play scouts, the probability of:
3☆ pulls:
- A single 3☆ pull (like... nine 2☆ and one 3☆): 32.30%
- A double 3☆ pull: 27.92%
- A triple 3☆ pull: 10.73%
4☆ pulls: (note that the last pull must be a 4☆ in these cases)
- A single 4☆ pull: 1.00%
- A double 4☆ pull: 0.30%
- A triple 4☆ pull: 0.04%
Mix 3☆ and 4☆ pulls:
- A single 3☆ and single 4☆ pull: 10.72%
- A double 3☆ and single 4☆ pull: 7.90%
- A triple 3☆ and single 4☆ pull: 2.62%
Now, let's say we're in an event with a special featured 4☆ girl with the regular rate of 0.5% (1 in 200). For 10-play scouts, the probability of:
- Getting the event girl in a scout: 4.89%
- Getting the event girl in 10 scouts (100 girls): 39.42%
- Getting the event girl in 20 scouts (200 girls): 63.30%
- Getting the event girl in 40 scouts (400 girls): 86.53%
Now for some funny ones. For a single 10-play scout, the probability of:
- Getting all 3☆ girls: 1 in 4,451,012,160
- Getting all 4☆ girls: 1 in 1,693,508,780,843,028
Interesting takeaways:
- You have less than a 1 in 3 chance of getting the worst pull possible (only one 3☆)
- The probability of getting a triple 3☆ pull is almost equal to the probability of getting a pull with a single 3☆ and a single 4☆
- It is 10 times as likely to get a pull with a single 3☆ and a single 4☆ than it is to get a pull with a single 4☆ (this is because in the latter case, the last girl must be the 4☆)
- Although the probability of a single girl being the event girl is 1 in 200, the probability of 200 girls containing at least one event girl is only 127 in 200.
- You have a better chance of getting into Stanford than you have getting the event girl in a single pull
- The probability of getting a triple 4☆ pull is almost as likely as getting struck by lightning
- You are 169,350,878 times more likely to become the president of the United States than you are to get an all 4☆ pull.
w0w I have way too much time on my hands
EDIT: Actually, on the more optimistic side, the probability of getting at least one 4☆ in a 10-play scout is 26.26%... that’s more likely than flipping a coin twice and getting two heads :O
July 30, 2018 08:14:41 +0000
(UTC)
ktan17
Hey everyone! With a DreamFes out I thought I'd do a quick probability post!!! For reference, regular probability stuff here: https://bandori.party/activity/3541/I-was-thinking-about-probability-tingz-and-I-decided-to-calculate-some-gacha-probabilities-for-fun/
In a single 10-girl scout, the probability of:
- A single 3☆ pull (aka worst pull): 22.95% (down from 32.30%)
- A double 3☆ pull: 20.54% (down from 27.92%)
- A triple 3☆ pull: 8.17% (down from 10.73%)
3☆ and 4☆ (to allow for the last girl to be a 3☆)
- Getting a single 3☆ and a single 4☆: 15.81% (up from 10.72%)
- Getting a single 3☆ and a double 4☆: 4.80% (up from 1.57%)
- Getting a single 3☆ and a triple 4☆: 0.85% (up from 0.13%)
- Getting a single 3☆ and a quadruple 4☆: 0.096% (up from 0.007%)
The best news:
- Getting at least one 4☆: 46.14% (up from 26.26%)
Great takeaways:
- You're 13.7x more likely to get a quadruple 4☆ pull in DreamFes than in regular Gacha
- You have about a 1 in 20 chance of getting a single 3☆/double 4☆ pull
- You're 1.7x more likely to get a triple 4☆ pull in DreamFes than getting an event girl in a solo (0.85% vs 0.5%)
- In ten 10-girl scouts, on average you will pull six 4☆
- The probability of getting at least one 4☆ in a pull is almost the same as flipping a coin and getting heads; meaning you should expect at least one 4☆ every other scout!
Good luck everyone! May RNGsus rain four stars on us all, and happy scouting!
November 15, 2022 01:03:28 +0000
(UTC)
ghiautism
hello banpa. happy bliss day <3 it’s still the 14th where i live, but by the time it is the 15th for me the pop up will prolly be gone,, but WOO i was born 18 years ago!!!!!